Countries at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) agreed to revise its climate target under the Initial Strategy by July 2023, at the 80th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee Meeting (MEPC 80). The current level of ambition is to halve emission from shipping by 2050, which is deemed insufficient to meet the 1.5°C temperature-limit agreed under the Paris Agreement.
At the latest round of working group talks (ISWG-GHG-14 on 20-24 March), 45 countries supported the adoption of a Zero by 2050 target for shipping at the IMO. These were: EU27, US, UK, Canada, Japan, Fiji, Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Mexico, Norway, Bahamas, New Zealand, Australia, Kiribati, Tonga, Panama, Cook Islands, Türkiye.
Four countries, Australia, Chile, Singapore and Viet Nam, have previously called for a Net-Zero emission reduction by 2050.
13 countries opposed raising the current level of ambition: UAE, Argentina, Ecuador, China, India, Bangladesh, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay, Peru, Russian Federation, South Africa.
Several countries and observers also call for stronger action in the interim, by increasing the 2030 emission reduction target and adopting an additional 2040 target.
The US, the UK, Canada, together with several Pacific Island states, are calling for reducing shipping emission by at least 37% by 2030 and 96% by 2040 on a lifecycle basis, compared to a 2008 baseline. These targets are based on the Science Based Targets (STBi) decarbonisation pathway, and are in line with the 1.5°C climate-warming limit set by the Paris Agreement.
Japan, France, Germany and Italy supported adding 2030 and 2040 interim targets for shipping at the IMO in a statement following a G7 Ministerial summit in April, ahead of the Annual G7 Summit in Japan in May.
Organizations backing strong interim targets at the IMO are: the World Bank, Maersk Mckinney Moller Centre, the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the Clean Shipping Coalition.
Why are strong 2030 and 2040 emission reduction goals important for shipping?
The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports warn that rapid and significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed across all sectors of the economy, in order to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C degrees.
For global shipping, this means urgent action to phase out the use of fossil fuels, and scale up the uptake of zero-emission fuels and technologies and efficiency measures, such as green hydrogen-derived fuels, wind-propulsion technologies, and slow-steaming of vessels.
The Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) projects that a 1.5°C-aligned transition in the sector requires emissions to go down by 36% by 2030 and by 96% by 2040 (“S-Curve IPCC 1.5”), and reach zero by 2050.
The SBTi “S-Curve IPCC 1.5” trajectory operates with the same volume of climate pollution as the IPCC reports. However, it takes into account the slower technological development and scaling up of zero-emission fuels in the industry in 2020s, followed by a more rapid decarbonisation in the years between 2030 and 2040.
The UN’s report on the ‘2030 Breakthrough Goals’ for shipping shows that companies are already taking important steps to limit the climate impacts of their vessels. However, a clear regulatory signal is urgently needed to lend confidence to the industry, investors, and energy providers to step up their efforts in transitioning to zero-emission:
- Improve energy and operational efficiency measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships in 2020s (e.g. slow-steaming);
- Stimulate investments in zero-emission fuels (e.g. green hydrogen-derived fuels) and energy sources (e.g. wind propulsion) to ensure rapid adoption in 2030-2040;
- Encourage energy providers to scale up clean energy production now to meet shipping’s future needs.
Getting to Zero coalition estimates that zero-emission marine fuels need to make up at least 5% of all marine fuels by 2030 for Paris-aligned shipping decarbonization.
Major industry leaders and green hydrogen producers committed to work together to achieve the 5% uptake of green hydrogen in the sector at COP27, and called on the IMO to match the level of ambition by adopting strong climate targets policy measures.
What can you do?
The most important thing IMO delegates can do is to align their shipping policy stance with their government’s overall climate policy, and honor their commitment under the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, through full decarbonisation of all economic sectors.
As shipping emits more CO2 than all but the top 5 emitting countries, for most countries stance at IMO can have greater climate impact (either positive or negative) than domestic policy choices.
IMO delegates’ policy stances will be scrutinised by global media at MEPC 80, as the regulator will need to reach an agreement of stepping up its climate ambition under the strategy revision.